September 2016 – Further Evidence of The Shift

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In last month’s Keller Williams Peninsula Estates Market Report newsletter, we reported that the market shift had started in the mid-peninsula, with the new trend towards a balanced market, away from the sellers market that it has been for the past three years for both single family homes and condo/townhomes.

This month we are reporting that we believe that the median sales price for homes peaked this past May, at $1,400,000, and has started backing off that peak to the tune of 10.7%. Likewise, we believe that condo/townhome median sales prices have also peaked, at $818,500 in April, 2016. They are currently off the peak by 8.4%.

We believe that prices will continue to move up or down a bit on a monthly basis but that the general trend will be slightly down or flat for the next couple of years.

We do not see any evidence of a steep drop off in sales or prices. The number of expired listings is still extremely low (1.6% of condo and 2.5% of home listings) and months of inventory is also extremely low (1.3 months for homes and 1.2 months for condos).
While it is expected that prices peak in the late Spring/early Summer months, the indications when we look at number of sales are that buyers are fatigued with rising prices and are sitting on the sidelines more than they have been. This is evidenced by the drop in sales of both single family homes and condo/townhomes, down by 5.2% and 3.2% respectively.
Another indicator of buyer fatigue is the falling sales price to list price ratio. It peaked in May, 2015, at 110.8% for single family homes and 110% for condo/townhomes. Now, those numbers stand at 104.8% and 104.0%, respectively.

Single Family Homes

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Condo/Townhomes

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Single Family Homes

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Condo/Townhomes

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Single Family Homes – Sale Price / List Price Ratio

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Condo/Townhomes – Sale Price / List Price Ratio

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This post was written by Rumana Jabeen

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