San Mateo County Market Update March 2026

Rumana Jabeen • March 5, 2026

A Small Interest Rate Shift, A Big Market Signal

Bay Area real estate market trends and negotiation strategies for home buyers and sellers in Foster City, San Mateo, and surrounding Peninsula communities.

This past week we saw something small on paper but meaningful in practice. Mortgage interest rates dipped just slightly below six percent. On its own, that change might not look dramatic. Yet almost immediately we saw the impact across the market.

Open houses this weekend were busy.

Buyers who had been watching the market from a distance suddenly showed up in person. Conversations that had been quiet a few weeks ago became active again.

This is one of the realities of real estate that people often underestimate. Small changes in borrowing costs can create noticeable shifts in buyer behavior. Even a fraction of a percentage point affects affordability, monthly payments, and ultimately confidence.

What we are seeing right now is not a sudden boom. It is a reminder that demand in the Bay Area housing market remains strong and ready to move when conditions improve even slightly.

The Market Is Not Slow. It Is Normal.

Over the past few weeks I have heard from several sellers who feel the market is slow.

In reality, what we are experiencing is something different. We are seeing the market settle into a more normal rhythm after several years that were anything but normal.

The post pandemic real estate market was defined by extraordinary conditions. Historically low interest rates combined with pent up demand created a period of intense competition. Homes routinely received double digit offers, buyers waived protections, and prices accelerated at a pace that was not sustainable.

What we are seeing today is not a slowdown. It is a return to a healthier, more balanced cadence.

Homes still sell. Buyers are still active. Competition still exists. The difference is that decisions are more thoughtful and expectations are more grounded.

For both buyers and sellers, this normalization is actually a positive development.

What This Means for Sellers

The recent increase in open house activity shows that buyers are paying attention. But it also reinforces something important for sellers.

Pricing matters more than ever.

In a market where buyers are closely calculating their monthly payments, even relatively small price differences can change the way a property performs. A difference of fifteen thousand dollars in price may not seem significant in the context of a Bay Area home value, but for many buyers it can push the monthly payment beyond their comfort zone.

When that happens, activity cools quickly.

When pricing aligns correctly with market expectations, the opposite occurs. Buyers engage, showings increase, and offers follow.

The lesson for sellers is simple. Strategic pricing is not about leaving money on the table. It is about positioning your home where buyers feel confident stepping forward.

In the current market, that precision can make the difference between a quiet listing and a competitive one.

What This Means for Buyers

For buyers, the current environment should actually feel encouraging.

You are still in a competitive market, but the landscape has become more predictable. Instead of every property becoming a bidding war, we are seeing a more consistent pattern.

The very best homes, those with excellent condition, strong locations, and thoughtful pricing, will still attract multiple offers.

Many other homes will follow a more measured path. They may still sell over asking, but typically within a more rational range rather than the dramatic jumps we saw several years ago.

This stability allows buyers to approach the process with more confidence. You can evaluate properties carefully, review disclosures thoroughly, and make decisions based on long term value rather than urgency.

It is still important to be prepared. Financing should be fully reviewed and expectations should be realistic. But buyers who are ready will find opportunities that simply did not exist during the peak frenzy years.

A Market That Rewards Preparation

One of the themes I see most clearly in today's market is that preparation matters.

For sellers, preparation means pricing strategically, presenting the home beautifully, and understanding how buyers are thinking about affordability.

For buyers, preparation means understanding your financing, knowing your comfort range, and recognizing when the right opportunity appears.

The slight shift in interest rates this week is a perfect example of how quickly momentum can change. Buyers who were already prepared were able to step into the market immediately. Those who were still thinking about it are now rushing to catch up.

Real estate has always rewarded preparation. In today's environment, that remains true.

Stability Is a Strength

After several years of volatility, stability is something to appreciate.

A market that moves at a thoughtful pace allows buyers and sellers to make better decisions. It allows families to plan with confidence. It allows real estate to return to what it has always been at its best: a long term investment in stability, community, and home.

The recent interest rate movement is a reminder that demand has not disappeared. It has simply been waiting for the right moment to act.

The best time to start your strategy was yesterday. The next best time is today.

If you are thinking about buying or selling this year, let us talk about your goals and build a plan that positions you for success in today's market.

Connect with Rumana

February 2026 Market Reports

Below you'll find market information for San Mateo County, San Mateo (City), and Foster City

San Mateo County Equity Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices over the last month, year, five years, and ten years using rolling 3-month data.

San Mateo County Market Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices, comparing year-over-year data for a single month.

San Mateo City Equity Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices over the last month, year, five years, and ten years using rolling 3-month data.

San Mateo City Market Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices, comparing year-over-year data for a single month.

Foster City Equity Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices over the last month, year, five years, and ten years.

Single Family Residences

Condominiums

Townhomes

< Older Post

Newer Post >

The Fall Market Is Building Before It Begins

By Rumana Jabeen • August 20, 2026

Summer didn't bring enough new homes to meet buyer demand. Now, a growing pool of motivated buyers could be setting the stage for a very active fall across San Mateo County. Summer is winding down, and normally this is the point when I look back at the season and see a market that has taken a bit of a breather. This year, I see something different. We did get some new inventory over the summer, but not nearly enough to keep pace with demand, particularly for single-family homes. At the same time, buyers never really went away. Many are financially prepared, motivated, and actively searching, but they simply haven't found the inventory they need. That leaves us heading toward fall with an interesting combination: limited supply, persistent demand, and buyers who are becoming increasingly eager to make a move. I don't know yet exactly how the fall market will play out, but the ingredients are in place for a very active season. Summer Never Delivered the Inventory We Needed Summer usually gives buyers more choices. New listings arrive, activity spreads across more properties, and the market tends to settle into a somewhat more relaxed rhythm. That wasn't really the story this year. Single-family home inventory remained particularly tight across San Mateo County. When desirable homes did come to market, buyers often competed aggressively for them. Since May 1, 1,067 single-family homes have sold across San Mateo County. Of those, 798 sold above their asking price, and 125 sold for at least 120% of asking. That tells me something important. Demand isn't missing. In many cases, buyers simply haven't had enough homes to choose from. We're seeing an even more extreme version of that dynamic in San Francisco, where more than 140 homes sold for at least $1 million above asking during the first half of 2026. That is an extraordinary increase from only eight such sales during the same period last year. San Mateo County is its own market, and I would never suggest that San Francisco's results automatically translate to the Peninsula. But both markets demonstrate what can happen when motivated buyers compete for limited desirable inventory. Where Did All the Buyers Go? They are still here. I'm currently working with three highly motivated buyers who are financially prepared and ready to purchase. Their challenge isn't deciding whether they want to buy. It is finding the right single-family home to buy. And they are certainly not alone. Every buyer who spent May, June, July, and August waiting for the right property does not simply disappear when summer ends. Many carry that search into September and October with even greater motivation. That is the pent-up demand I am watching now. If fall brings a meaningful increase in new listings, we could see that demand spread across a healthier selection of homes. If inventory remains constrained, competition for the best properties could become even more pronounced. Either way, buyers should be preparing now rather than waiting for the fall market to officially "begin." Sellers, You Haven't Missed Your Window For homeowners, I think this is the most important takeaway from the summer. If you considered selling earlier this year but didn't, you haven't necessarily missed your opportunity. In fact, time may be on your side. There is a pool of buyers who have spent months searching without finding the right home. If your property matches what those buyers have been waiting for, coming to market this fall could put you in front of an unusually motivated audience. That does not mean every home will automatically receive multiple offers or sell substantially over asking. The fundamentals still matter. Your price has to match your product. Your home has to be positioned against the other choices buyers have across the Peninsula, not just the house down the street. Presentation, condition, location, and pricing strategy will determine whether buyers see your home as the opportunity they've been waiting for. A strong market can create opportunity, but strategy is what converts that opportunity into a successful sale. Advice for Buyers This Fall If you have been waiting for more inventory, use the remaining weeks of summer to get completely prepared. Make sure your financing is current, know your true comfort range, and be clear about which features are essential versus negotiable. More homes may come to market this fall, but the best single-family properties are unlikely to sit around waiting for you to decide. Patience has been necessary this summer. This fall may require decisiveness. Advice for Sellers This Fall If you have been wondering whether you waited too long to sell, let's change the question. Instead of asking whether you missed spring or summer, ask what your specific home would be competing against if it came to market this fall. That is something we can evaluate now. We can look at recent sales, current inventory, buyer activity, your home's condition, and where it fits within its price bracket. If the opportunity is there, the next few weeks give us time to prepare intentionally rather than rushing to market. Summer left us with fewer homes for sale, not fewer buyers. That distinction could define the fall market. The best time to start your strategy was yesterday. The next best time is today.