San Mateo County Market Update October 2025

Rumana Jabeen • October 6, 2025

The Power of Strategy in a Changing Market

Bay Area real estate market trends and negotiation strategies for home buyers and sellers in Foster City, San Mateo, and surrounding Peninsula communities.

Some weekends remind me why real estate is about more than pretty homes, offers, and contracts.

Recently, I found myself negotiating for my sellers on two very different homes. One home received an offer at asking price. The other drew two offers, both $100,000 or more below asking.

In today’s sliding real estate market, neither offer surprised me. Buyers are more selective, sellers are becoming more realistic, and every transaction has its own rhythm. My clients already nervous with the way the market had shifted were ready to accept the offers, but I saw an opportunity to do better for them. An opportunity that paid off.

This particular weekend was a great example of how a good real estate agent's role isn’t just to complete a sale—it’s to do so in a way that protects your clients’ interests and ensure they don’t leave money on the table so they can reach their goals.

A Market That Rewards Strategy

Right now, the Bay Area Real Estate Market, even in Foster City and San Mateo, are steady but cautious. Homes are selling, but buyers are taking their time. Some listings spark multiple offers; others linger despite good presentation and pricing.

We’re in what I call a market of strategy—one where small choices around timing, communication, and especially negotiation make big differences. In a market like this, these small choices matter more than ever.

Two Homes, Two Lessons

The first home received a full-price offer within days. It was clean and fair, and while my clients were open to accepting, I noticed signs that the buyer was more motivated than their agent let on. After a strategy discussion with my sellers, I opened a conversation with the buyer's agent and that discussion led to an improved offer and better financial outcomes for my sellers. They were elated.

The second home was tougher. Two offers, both were around $100,000 under asking. My clients were discouraged and ready to accept one to move on. But I believed the home’s true value hadn’t been fully communicated. I reached out to both buyer agents, shared key market data, and highlighted the home’s advantages. Within days, one buyer raised their offer significantly, and the property went under contract near list price.

That weekend reminded me that strategy isn’t about pushing—it’s about reading the situation and staying engaged. Everyone views opportunities in different ways, and for some agents in a tricky market, accepting the offers would have been opportunity enough.

Why Negotiation Matters, Again

During the boom years, negotiation often felt secondary. The extreme demand in the market would naturally bring in a decent offer on a home that was well positioned. Now, as conditions balance, negotiation once again defines success.

Here’s what I’m seeing:

Buyers are cautious, but not absent. They want reassurance, not pressure. They also have more options.
Sellers are motivated, but measured. They expect their agents to protect their value. Many purchased at the height of a market or need this sell to position them for their next phase of life.

Trust and timing drive results. The agent who communicates clearly creates confidence on both sides.

Negotiation isn’t confrontation. It’s connecting all parties on their goals, and helping both sides to see value clearly and move forward with confidence.

My Approach to Maximize Strategy

Every negotiation is different, but I rely on three core principles:

Insight Creates Leverage - I study market data, trends, and every individual buyer's motivation. Knowing the “why” behind an offer shapes how I respond.
Communication Builds Trust - Real conversations with phone calls, not just messages, build understanding and uncovers opportunity.
Calm Creates Confidence - Negotiation can be emotional. My role is to keep the process steady so my clients make decisions from clarity, not stress.

Advice for Sellers

If you’re selling right now, remember: the first offer is just the start.

Even lower offers can become stronger through the right discussion.

Timing, tone, and presentation all affect leverage.

A strategic, experienced agent can help you close confidently, not hastily.

Advice for Buyers

If you’re buying in the Bay Area, you have more flexibility than before—but strategy still matters.

Be pre-approved and ready to act.

Communicate clearly and professionally.

Work with an agent who understands seller motivation and market psychology.

Strong offers aren’t always the highest—they’re the best positioned.

The best time to start your strategy was yesterday. The next best time is today.

Let’s talk about how to position you for success—whether you’re buying or selling in today’s Bay Area market.

Connect with Rumana

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The Fall Market Is Building Before It Begins

By Rumana Jabeen • August 20, 2026

Summer didn't bring enough new homes to meet buyer demand. Now, a growing pool of motivated buyers could be setting the stage for a very active fall across San Mateo County. Summer is winding down, and normally this is the point when I look back at the season and see a market that has taken a bit of a breather. This year, I see something different. We did get some new inventory over the summer, but not nearly enough to keep pace with demand, particularly for single-family homes. At the same time, buyers never really went away. Many are financially prepared, motivated, and actively searching, but they simply haven't found the inventory they need. That leaves us heading toward fall with an interesting combination: limited supply, persistent demand, and buyers who are becoming increasingly eager to make a move. I don't know yet exactly how the fall market will play out, but the ingredients are in place for a very active season. Summer Never Delivered the Inventory We Needed Summer usually gives buyers more choices. New listings arrive, activity spreads across more properties, and the market tends to settle into a somewhat more relaxed rhythm. That wasn't really the story this year. Single-family home inventory remained particularly tight across San Mateo County. When desirable homes did come to market, buyers often competed aggressively for them. Since May 1, 1,067 single-family homes have sold across San Mateo County. Of those, 798 sold above their asking price, and 125 sold for at least 120% of asking. That tells me something important. Demand isn't missing. In many cases, buyers simply haven't had enough homes to choose from. We're seeing an even more extreme version of that dynamic in San Francisco, where more than 140 homes sold for at least $1 million above asking during the first half of 2026. That is an extraordinary increase from only eight such sales during the same period last year. San Mateo County is its own market, and I would never suggest that San Francisco's results automatically translate to the Peninsula. But both markets demonstrate what can happen when motivated buyers compete for limited desirable inventory. Where Did All the Buyers Go? They are still here. I'm currently working with three highly motivated buyers who are financially prepared and ready to purchase. Their challenge isn't deciding whether they want to buy. It is finding the right single-family home to buy. And they are certainly not alone. Every buyer who spent May, June, July, and August waiting for the right property does not simply disappear when summer ends. Many carry that search into September and October with even greater motivation. That is the pent-up demand I am watching now. If fall brings a meaningful increase in new listings, we could see that demand spread across a healthier selection of homes. If inventory remains constrained, competition for the best properties could become even more pronounced. Either way, buyers should be preparing now rather than waiting for the fall market to officially "begin." Sellers, You Haven't Missed Your Window For homeowners, I think this is the most important takeaway from the summer. If you considered selling earlier this year but didn't, you haven't necessarily missed your opportunity. In fact, time may be on your side. There is a pool of buyers who have spent months searching without finding the right home. If your property matches what those buyers have been waiting for, coming to market this fall could put you in front of an unusually motivated audience. That does not mean every home will automatically receive multiple offers or sell substantially over asking. The fundamentals still matter. Your price has to match your product. Your home has to be positioned against the other choices buyers have across the Peninsula, not just the house down the street. Presentation, condition, location, and pricing strategy will determine whether buyers see your home as the opportunity they've been waiting for. A strong market can create opportunity, but strategy is what converts that opportunity into a successful sale. Advice for Buyers This Fall If you have been waiting for more inventory, use the remaining weeks of summer to get completely prepared. Make sure your financing is current, know your true comfort range, and be clear about which features are essential versus negotiable. More homes may come to market this fall, but the best single-family properties are unlikely to sit around waiting for you to decide. Patience has been necessary this summer. This fall may require decisiveness. Advice for Sellers This Fall If you have been wondering whether you waited too long to sell, let's change the question. Instead of asking whether you missed spring or summer, ask what your specific home would be competing against if it came to market this fall. That is something we can evaluate now. We can look at recent sales, current inventory, buyer activity, your home's condition, and where it fits within its price bracket. If the opportunity is there, the next few weeks give us time to prepare intentionally rather than rushing to market. Summer left us with fewer homes for sale, not fewer buyers. That distinction could define the fall market. The best time to start your strategy was yesterday. The next best time is today.