Fall Inventory Is Coming. So Are the Buyers.

Rumana Jabeen • September 23, 2026

Typically, there’s a little breathing room between the summer and fall real estate markets. Summer winds down, families settle back into their routines, and then the fall market begins to build.

This year, I’m not seeing much of a pause.

In just the past few weeks, I’ve started working with five new buyers who are extremely motivated to purchase. Most want to be in a home as soon as possible, and certainly before the end of the year.

At the same time, I’m beginning to see more homes coming to market. I’m preparing three homes myself that we expect to bring to market before mid-October.

So yes, fall inventory is coming. The question is whether it will be enough to satisfy all the buyers waiting for it.

The Fall Pause Never Came

Throughout the summer, we talked about the shortage of single-family homes across San Mateo County. There were plenty of buyers, but simply not enough homes for them to buy. Now we're entering fall, and many of those buyers are still here.

Some have been searching for months. Others are just entering the market. But many of the buyers I’m talking to share two things: they are financially prepared, and they are motivated to move quickly when the right home appears. That is an important distinction.

This isn't simply casual interest from buyers waiting to see what happens. There is a pool of people who want to purchase and have been waiting for inventory to give them the opportunity.

More Homes Are Coming, But Will It Be Enough?

I am starting to see more sellers preparing to come to market, which is exactly what buyers need.

The three homes I'm currently preparing for sale are part of that fall inventory, and I expect we'll continue seeing new listings arrive through September and October.

But more inventory doesn't automatically mean less competition when the buyer pool is growing at the same time.

For the market to meaningfully shift toward buyers, supply has to begin catching up with demand. Based on what I am seeing right now, I don't think we're there yet.

That means well-positioned single-family homes in Foster City, San Mateo, and other desirable Peninsula communities could continue to see significant interest this fall.

And as always, your price has to match your product. Strong demand doesn't mean buyers will overlook an overpriced home. They have become very good at recognizing value, and the homes that combine the right price, presentation, condition, and location are the ones most likely to turn that demand into competition.

Why Some Buyers Don't Want to Wait

There's another conversation I'm hearing more frequently from buyers: AI money.

Some of the buyers I'm working with want to purchase before additional wealth from the rapidly growing AI industry puts even more pressure on Bay Area housing.

That's not just a hypothetical concern. Recent reporting has documented buyers elsewhere in the Bay Area accelerating their plans because they're worried about facing greater competition from AI-generated wealth. Luxury home sales in the San Francisco metro also rose significantly during the first half of 2026.

That doesn't mean an AI boom will affect every Peninsula neighborhood or every price point equally. In fact, we've already seen significant differences between San Francisco and other parts of the Bay Area this year.

But perception matters, too. When buyers believe waiting could mean facing more competition later, it can create urgency today.

And I'm seeing that urgency firsthand.

For Buyers: More Choice, But Be Ready

The good news is that fall should bring more choices than you had this summer. Don't interpret that as a reason to sit back and wait. Use this time to make sure your financing is current, understand exactly what you can comfortably afford, and decide where you're willing to compromise.

When the right home comes along, you want to spend your time deciding whether it is right for you, not figuring out whether you're ready to buy it. There will be opportunities this fall. There will also likely be competition for the best ones.

For Sellers: Your Audience Is Already Waiting

If you've been considering selling this year, the opportunity didn't end with spring or summer.

There are buyers actively waiting for more homes to come to market, and many of them want to purchase before the end of the year. The goal isn't simply to put your home in front of those buyers. It's to position it so they recognize its value immediately. That means understanding your competition, preparing the home appropriately, choosing the right launch price, and creating a strategy that gives motivated buyers a reason to act.

This fall could give both sides something they've been waiting for: buyers get more homes to consider, and sellers get access to a motivated audience ready to act. The question isn't whether there is demand. It's whether enough inventory arrives to meet it.

The best time to start your strategy was yesterday. The next best time is today.

If you're considering buying or selling in Foster City, San Mateo, or anywhere across the Peninsula this fall, contact me. Let's look at the market around your specific goals and build a strategy before the season gets underway.

Connect with Rumana

August 2026 Market Reports

Below you'll find market information for San Mateo County, the City of San Mateo, and Foster City

San Mateo County Equity Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices over the last month, year, five years, and ten years using rolling 3-month data.

San Mateo County Market Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices, comparing year-over-year data for a single month.

San Mateo City Equity Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices over the last month, year, five years, and ten years using rolling 3-month data.

San Mateo City Market Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices, comparing year-over-year data for a single month.

Foster City Market & Equity Report. This report covers changes in median home sales prices over the last month, year, five years, and ten years.

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The Fall Market Is Building Before It Begins

By Rumana Jabeen • August 20, 2026

Summer didn't bring enough new homes to meet buyer demand. Now, a growing pool of motivated buyers could be setting the stage for a very active fall across San Mateo County. Summer is winding down, and normally this is the point when I look back at the season and see a market that has taken a bit of a breather. This year, I see something different. We did get some new inventory over the summer, but not nearly enough to keep pace with demand, particularly for single-family homes. At the same time, buyers never really went away. Many are financially prepared, motivated, and actively searching, but they simply haven't found the inventory they need. That leaves us heading toward fall with an interesting combination: limited supply, persistent demand, and buyers who are becoming increasingly eager to make a move. I don't know yet exactly how the fall market will play out, but the ingredients are in place for a very active season. Summer Never Delivered the Inventory We Needed Summer usually gives buyers more choices. New listings arrive, activity spreads across more properties, and the market tends to settle into a somewhat more relaxed rhythm. That wasn't really the story this year. Single-family home inventory remained particularly tight across San Mateo County. When desirable homes did come to market, buyers often competed aggressively for them. Since May 1, 1,067 single-family homes have sold across San Mateo County. Of those, 798 sold above their asking price, and 125 sold for at least 120% of asking. That tells me something important. Demand isn't missing. In many cases, buyers simply haven't had enough homes to choose from. We're seeing an even more extreme version of that dynamic in San Francisco, where more than 140 homes sold for at least $1 million above asking during the first half of 2026. That is an extraordinary increase from only eight such sales during the same period last year. San Mateo County is its own market, and I would never suggest that San Francisco's results automatically translate to the Peninsula. But both markets demonstrate what can happen when motivated buyers compete for limited desirable inventory. Where Did All the Buyers Go? They are still here. I'm currently working with three highly motivated buyers who are financially prepared and ready to purchase. Their challenge isn't deciding whether they want to buy. It is finding the right single-family home to buy. And they are certainly not alone. Every buyer who spent May, June, July, and August waiting for the right property does not simply disappear when summer ends. Many carry that search into September and October with even greater motivation. That is the pent-up demand I am watching now. If fall brings a meaningful increase in new listings, we could see that demand spread across a healthier selection of homes. If inventory remains constrained, competition for the best properties could become even more pronounced. Either way, buyers should be preparing now rather than waiting for the fall market to officially "begin." Sellers, You Haven't Missed Your Window For homeowners, I think this is the most important takeaway from the summer. If you considered selling earlier this year but didn't, you haven't necessarily missed your opportunity. In fact, time may be on your side. There is a pool of buyers who have spent months searching without finding the right home. If your property matches what those buyers have been waiting for, coming to market this fall could put you in front of an unusually motivated audience. That does not mean every home will automatically receive multiple offers or sell substantially over asking. The fundamentals still matter. Your price has to match your product. Your home has to be positioned against the other choices buyers have across the Peninsula, not just the house down the street. Presentation, condition, location, and pricing strategy will determine whether buyers see your home as the opportunity they've been waiting for. A strong market can create opportunity, but strategy is what converts that opportunity into a successful sale. Advice for Buyers This Fall If you have been waiting for more inventory, use the remaining weeks of summer to get completely prepared. Make sure your financing is current, know your true comfort range, and be clear about which features are essential versus negotiable. More homes may come to market this fall, but the best single-family properties are unlikely to sit around waiting for you to decide. Patience has been necessary this summer. This fall may require decisiveness. Advice for Sellers This Fall If you have been wondering whether you waited too long to sell, let's change the question. Instead of asking whether you missed spring or summer, ask what your specific home would be competing against if it came to market this fall. That is something we can evaluate now. We can look at recent sales, current inventory, buyer activity, your home's condition, and where it fits within its price bracket. If the opportunity is there, the next few weeks give us time to prepare intentionally rather than rushing to market. Summer left us with fewer homes for sale, not fewer buyers. That distinction could define the fall market. The best time to start your strategy was yesterday. The next best time is today.